321
AXPZ20 KNHC 210409
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ON SUN. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE MON MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A
STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.
LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD
WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN EVENING
THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 01N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS MAINLY
ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 01N107W TO 00N125W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 10N E OF 87W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
NW SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE ONGOING. LOCALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUNATEPEC
REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 TO 12 FT BY SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE MON MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT. LARGE SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY
FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS
FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN EVENING THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY
ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
EARLY ON WED. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH WED
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 15 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS
AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. SEAS ARE 8 TO
11 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF
THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 07N W OF 115W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W BY SAT EVENING,
THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO
26N140W BY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUN THROUGH
LATE MON. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
BUILDING SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
REGION ON MON. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
RAMOS
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