914
AXPZ20 KNHC 211548
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ON SUN. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY SUN EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO
18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN EVENING INTO
MON. THEN, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY
MON MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT. STORM CONDITIONS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT,
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON TUE. LARGE SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY
FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS
FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO
AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N102W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N102W TO 01N120W TO 04N140W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO 01N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N AND E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N122W COVERS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL,
EXCEPT FOR DECAYING ROUGH SEAS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL INDUCE
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT A STORM-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON MON. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY
FROM THE SOURCE REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
ARE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO
30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR
ANS NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE TRADE WINDS JUST W OF THE REGION, FAVORING PERSISTING
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL SEE LIFT AS THE INTERACT WITH THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES (100 TO 150
MM) ARE POSSIBLE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS N
OF 17N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 115W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. DECAYING LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 07N W OF
115W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 7
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W THIS EVENING,
THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO
26N140W BY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUN
THROUGH LATE MON. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
GR
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