763
AXPZ20 KNHC 212115
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ON SUN. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY SUN EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO
18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO
MON. THEN, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY MON
MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT. STORM CONDITIONS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON TUE. LARGE SEAS
GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL
AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH TUE
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE EARLY ON WED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE. THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUN THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N105W TO 01N120W TO 05N140W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO 00N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N AND E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N120W COVERS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 28N WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED BEYOND THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL INDUCE
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUN. LOOKING
AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT A STORM-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ON MON. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS VERY
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE
REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W. SEAS ARE LIKELY 4
TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE
EQUATOR TO ABOUT 08N AND E OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO
30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. IN
ADDITION, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO
20 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS N
OF 17N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W BASED ON SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST
OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 07N W OF 115W BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W THIS EVENING,
THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO
28N140W BY SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION ON MON. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
GR
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