214
AXPZ20 KNHC 220954
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: A GAP WIND EVENT STARTED
ACROSS THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM-FORCE TONIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. STORM CONDITIONS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE EARLY ON TUE. LARGE SEAS GENERATED
FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM
THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR
WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO
AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE. THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 04N93W TO 02N105W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N106W TO 04N130W TO 06N140W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 00N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N AND E OF 95W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N121W COVERS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED BEYOND THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF. A GAP WIND EVENT HAS BEGUN IN TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG
WINDS FORECAST TO REACH GALE-FORCE SPEEDS SHORTLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF.
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT A STORM-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ON MON, HOWEVER GALES ARE FORECAST TO START SHORTLY THIS
MORNING. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS VERY STRONG GAP
WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO NEAR 90W. SEAS ARE TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR TO ABOUT 09N AND E
OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N. SEAS TO 9 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS N
OF 14N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 03N TO 16N W OF 116W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS, AND EXTEND FROM 31N138W TO 28N140W
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS TO 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON MON.
IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
RAMOS
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