562
AXPZ20 KNHC 221604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N BASED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
PROVIDE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 40 KT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT TODAY. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO
18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO
MON. THEN, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY MON
MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT. STORM CONDITIONS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE SPEEDS ON TUE. LARGE
SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD
WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH TUE
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE EARLY ON WED.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10
FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUE MORNING
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES (150
TO 200 MM). THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO THE EQUATOR AT 108W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR AT 108W TO 02N140W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO 01N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N
EAST OF 86W, INCLUDING ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA
AND SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE TROUGHS AND ITCZ.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROVIDES FOR
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AT THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS WELL-ALGINED
TO THE GULF, SUCH THAT FETCH IS MAXIMIZED, AND SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 4-
7 FT, WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 1023 MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N121W, WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ALLOW FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN DECAYING
NW SWELL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND
SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT A STORM-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON MON. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOURCE REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
25 TO 30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
TO ABOUT 03N. SEAS TO 9 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
WINDS. IN ADDITION, SEAS GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N121W, AND DOMINATES MOST
OF THE FORECAST WATERS, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NORTH OF 20N. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN
DECAYING N SWELL, WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN AREAS OF FRESH TRADES. AS OF
1200 UTC, A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW WATERS, FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS NEAR 30N140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS, AND EXTEND FROM 31N138W TO 28N140W
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A
NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS TO 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON MON.
IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
GR/AM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page