456
AXPZ20 KNHC 222127
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N BASED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA, WILL
PROVIDE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MON. THEN, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
TO STORM FORCE BY MON MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT.
STORM CONDITIONS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE
SPEEDS ON TUE. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP
WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W, AND AS FAR
SOUTH THAN 04N BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS
OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10
FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUE MORNING
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES (150
TO 200 MM). THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO THE EQUATOR AT 100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR AT 108W TO 00N120W TO 00N140W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 04N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N EAST OF 85W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROVIDES FOR
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 31N122W
DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS
IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W, WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 4 TO 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
25 TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE
AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SEAS TO AROUND
8 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE
LARGE EXTENT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS NEAR 30N140W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB SITUATED
NEAR 31N122W DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W,
INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N
TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE
NOTED S OF 20N AND W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N140W WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NW WATERS, AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W TONIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A NEW SET
OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO
14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON MON. IN THE
MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. LOOKING AHEAD, A
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N140W ON WED,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.
GR
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