247
AXPZ20 KNHC 231006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0950 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 13N WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. GALE-FORCE NNE WINDS EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH TO
AROUND 11N WITH SEAS IN THE 12 FT TO 24 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 26 FT TODAY AS STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE
FORCE SPEEDS TUE MORNING, AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W, AND AS FAR SOUTH
THAN 04N BY TONIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD ROUGH TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND SEAS WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH TO
13 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES (150
TO 200 MM). THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 00N103W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
02S104W AND CONTINUES TO 01S126W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE PANAMA, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROVIDES FOR
FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE
NEAR 5 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 32N123W
DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W, WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 6
FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD ROUGH TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND SEAS WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH TO 13 FT.
GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N TONIGHT INTO TUE.
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS.
IN ADDITION, THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THESE WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE AREA PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB SITUATED NEAR 32N123W DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF 13N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W PER RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL, ARE NOTED WITHIN THESE WINDS. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE
FROM THE RIDGE TO THE FRONT NW OF THE AREA IS ALSO SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO 131W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 14 FT IN MODERATE PERIOD NW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
WATERS, AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W LATER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A NEW
SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS
TO 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. LOOKING AHEAD, A SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N140W ON WED, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
RAMOS
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