948
AXPZ20 KNHC 231502
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 13N WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. GALE-FORCE NNE WINDS EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH TO
AROUND 11N WITH SEAS IN THE 12 FT TO 24 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 26 FT TODAY AS STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE
FORCE SPEEDS TUE MORNING, AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W, AND AS FAR SOUTH
THAN 04N BY TONIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD, FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH WINDS
REACHING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY ROUGH. GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES (150
TO 200 MM). THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 02N106W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02S103W TO 01S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 07N EAST OF 89W, AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN
94W AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH MODERATE WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH NW
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N TONIGHT
INTO TUE. SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WINDS. THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF 18N, ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
S OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A SET OF NW SWELL HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE
NW WATERS, WITH SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 7
TO 9 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR 30N140W ON WED, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
AL
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