505
AXPZ20 KNHC 250326
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS N OF
THE AREA HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS HAS LOOSENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND SEAS PEAKING NEAR 15 FT. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT,
FURTHER LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOOSENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW GALE
FORCE BY WED MORNING. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 115W AND SOUTH TO THE
EQUATOR THIS AFTERNOON.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING N OF THE AREA AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS THE ADDED COMPONENT
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW, WINDS WILL REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT
WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING, WHEN THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO REGIONS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE GALE
FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GENERATED OVER THE
AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
ECUADOR, PERU AND COLOMBIA THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES (50 TO 100 MM) WILL BE LIKELY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12S82W TO 05S100W TO 05S111W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05S111W TO 01S133W TO BEYOND 02S140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 01N BETWEEN 87W
AND 107W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE CABO
CORRIENTES. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
A ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS
AS A RESULT OF BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, WILL
PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO
26N140W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N124W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW WATERS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 15N AND W OF
115W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE
WATERS FROM 03N TO 10N AND E OF 103W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM THESE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE
WATERS FROM 01N TO 14N AND E OF 109W. A SET OF NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE
N OF 15N AND W OF 129W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 130W THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP
WIND EVENTS WILL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 10N AND E OF 125W THROUGH THU.
ADAMS
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