054
AXPZ20 KNHC 250920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING N OF THE AREA AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS
WILL REACH GALE-FORCE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING, WHEN THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GENERATED OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
ECUADOR, PERU AND COLOMBIA THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES (50 TO 100 MM) WILL BE LIKELY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08S82W TO 04S100W TO 05S110W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05S110W TO 01S125W TO BEYOND 00N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06S TO 00N AND E OF
109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE CABO CORRIENTES.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR A ROUND OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS
WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS
AS A RESULT OF BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, WILL
PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 30N134W TO
25N140W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N126W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW WATERS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 15N AND W OF
115W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE
WATERS FROM 02N TO 10N AND E OF 100W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED FROM THESE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE
WATERS FROM 01N TO 14N AND E OF 110W. A SET OF NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT
RANGE N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 130W THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. COMBINED SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP
WIND EVENTS WILL WILL SPREAD ROUGH SEAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 10N AND E OF 125W THROUGH THU.
ADAMS
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