987
AXPZ20 KNHC 251602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NE GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING
ACROSS OR IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION
TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GENERATED
OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
ECUADOR, PERU AND COLOMBIA THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES (50 TO 100 MM) WILL BE LIKELY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO THE EQUATOR AT 94W TO
TO 05S110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05S110W TO 02S130W TO BEYOND
01S140W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, AND THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FRESH TO STRONG
N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE STILL NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W
AND 95.5W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
LATE TODAY IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF
PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT AND THU. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO
ABOUT 0N84W WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. ROUGH SEAS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE OUTER GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE
WATERS AS A RESULT OF BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE THIS MORNING. PLEASE, SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, WILL PREVAIL
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND
110W TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N138W TO 25N140W. A 1019
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 15N AND W OF 115W. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE WATERS FROM 02N TO 10N AND E OF
100W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS GENERATED FROM THESE GALE FORCE
GAP WIND EVENTS ARE COVERING THE WATERS S OF 11N AND E OF 110W.
A SET OF NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW WATERS, WITH SEAS
IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE N OF 06N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS
OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL IMPACTING THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NW
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS.
GR
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