936
AXPZ20 KNHC 252341
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO THE EQUATOR AT 81W
TO 03S87W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 00N96W TO
05S102W. THE ITCZ IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND RUNS FROM 05S102W
TO 04S120W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. A
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE N WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 13N. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT AND
THU. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST N OF CABO SAN LAZARO
SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AND MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RECENT SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 07N96W WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. IN ADDITION, SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
TO ABOUT 02N84W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE
FINALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR AS THE GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
REGIONS ARE ALSO DIMISHING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN
90W AND 115W TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION AND
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 30N137W. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL ARE NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N124W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N
OF 15N W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS OBSERVED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA
IN THE SW PART OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 17N W OF
135W WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. SEAS
GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W. A
SET OF NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW WATERS, MAINLY W OF
A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 28N132W TO 21N140W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO
11 FT RANGE. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED FROM 06N TO 20N AND W OF
130W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW
WATERS, REACHING FROM 30N133W TO 20N140W BY THU AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SAME AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION, THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL IMPACTING THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NW
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
GR
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