519
AXPZ20 KNHC 262119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W TO 04S86W TO 02S100W TO
04S108W. THE ITCZ IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND RUNS FROM 04S108W
TO BEYOND 04S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S
OF THE EQUATOR TO 10S AND E OF 96W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND IN THE VICINITY OF CABO SAN LUCAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. THEN, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
MON THROUGH TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 09N90W
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE JUST S OF THE
AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 05N WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN AGAIN MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS N OF AREA. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT AS N
WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION
AND EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FOLLOW
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 FT ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
32N125W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N
W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 12N AND W OF
110W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NW WATERS THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SAT. SEAS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE ON FRI.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE AREAS OF SWELL IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page