171
AXPZ20 KNHC 281532
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 03S85W TO 05S96W. THE ITCZ
IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND RUNS FROM 05S96W TO BEYOND 05S120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO
STARTING SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
N OF AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
NEAR 90W. AT THE SAME TIME, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF
THE AZUERO PENINSULA WITH N WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 21N140W. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT FOLLOW THE
FRONT. RIDGING COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT,
AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAUSING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN.
GR
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