822
AXPZ20 KNHC 282124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 04S86W TO 05S96W. THE ITCZ
IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND RUNS FROM 05S96W TO BEYOND 05S120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
OF NOTE: DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR, A DOUBLE ITCZ IS
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN,
ESPECIALLY DURING LA NINA EVENTS WHEN THE COLD EQUATORIAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGER.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS
WITH MODERATE SEAS. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT, WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS N OF CABO
SAN LAZARO STARTING SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
N OF AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
NEAR 90W. AT THE SAME TIME, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF
THE AZUERO PENINSULA, WITH N WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST
REGION AND EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 21N140W. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT
FOLLOW THE FRONT. RIDGING COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W
OF 115W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT,
AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAUSING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
GR
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