157
AXPZ20 KNHC 011424
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 02S98W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02S98W TO BEYOND 04S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 01S BETWEEN 110W AND
123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NW EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, INCREASING WINDS OVER THESE WATERS.
LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT N OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG
EACH NIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS MAINLY LIGHT WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30 KT TONIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT
DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO NEAR 90W. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N146W. THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. THIS IS RESULTING IN WINDS MODERATE OR
WEAKER OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AREAS OF LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE N OF 15N STARTING
WED.
AL
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