064
AXPZ20 KNHC 040238
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 01S81W TO 03S87W TO 03S103W TO
00S113W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N120W TO BEYOND 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 03S BETWEEN
91W AND 103W, AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 127W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ALONG WITH 5
TO 7 FT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO ARE CAUSING FRESH TO
LOCALLY NW WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR PUNTA
EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO MAINLY
GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NE MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC INTO EARLY WED, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH WED NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO FRESH
TO STRONG SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE
WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA WED, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST THERE
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH FRESH GAP
WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 03N.
SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEAR THE
COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO NEAR 90W. FRESH N GAP WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
LIKELY PULSE TO LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND
JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD, SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH ROUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION IS DOMINATING MUCH
OF THE WATERS N OF 04N. THIS IS LEADING TO MAINLY MODERATE OR
WEAKER NE TO E WINDS N OF THE EQUATOR, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA INTO LATE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 115W STARTING LATE
WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A CUT- OFF
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVE MARINE
CONDITIONS.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page