590
AXPZ20 KNHC 040856
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N120W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 127W AND
139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ALONG WITH 6
TO 8 FT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO ARE CAUSING FRESH NW WINDS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LEADING TO MAINLY GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NE MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC THIS MORNING, THEN MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO
STRONG SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS NW OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INTO
LATE WEEK, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS, WITH ASSOCIATED
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS THEN PERSISTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FORM OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS WEEKEND, THEN MEANDER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS AND
IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH FRESH GAP
WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 04N.
SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP
WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH ROUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH
THE WATERS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION IS DOMINATING MUCH
OF THE WATERS N OF 04N. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF
10N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS
THROUGH THE BASIN AVERAGE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA INTO LATE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 115W STARTING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS.
KONARIK
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