929
AXPZ20 KNHC 041547
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1510 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 01N102W TO 02.5N110W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5N113.5W TO 04.5N124W TO BEYOND 03N140W. A
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5S112W TO 03.5S126W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH BETWEEN
82.5W AND 88.5W, AND ALSO S OF 02S BETWEEN 118W AND 126W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ABOUT THE ITCZ FROM
02N TO 06N W OF 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA IS BUILDING SE TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE PRODUCING FRESH NW TO N WINDS
OFFSHORE THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, BECOMING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THIS
AREA. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHERE SEAS ARE SLIGHT. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LEADING TO MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TO
PUERTO ANGEL. A MODEST PLUME OF STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OFFSHORE TO 14N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS NW OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INTO
LATE WEEK, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS, WITH ASSOCIATED
ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL PERSIST OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS WEEKEND, THEN MEANDER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA
WATERS AND IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
MEXICO SUPPORTING STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 91W, WITH FRESH N GAP WINDS ONGOING
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 03.5N. SEAS ARE 6
TO 8 DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND 4 TO 6 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 FT OR LESS IN S-SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF
THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, SIGNIFICANT
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED APPROACH THE WATERS
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MON OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE REGION NEAR 37N144W IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 04N. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
BUILDING RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS N OF 10N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER. SEAS THROUGH THE BASIN ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL,
EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE ALONG 140W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA INTO LATE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 115W STARTING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS ACROSS NE PORTIONS.
STRIPLING
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