332
AXPZ20 KNHC 042051
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 02.5N93W TO 02.5N111W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5N113W TO 04.5N124W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH BETWEEN
83W AND 88.5W, AND ALSO S OF 02S BETWEEN 122W AND 126W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ABOUT THE ITCZ FROM
02N TO 07N W OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFFSHORE
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, BECOMING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS
ARE SLIGHT. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LEADING TO MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TO PUERTO ANGEL.
A MODEST PLUME OF FRESH GAP WINDS IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO 12N, WHERE SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
MODESTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI AND
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE, BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THAT TIME. ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS IN
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI THROUGH SAT, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE STRONG NW WINDS
OFFSHORE AND W OF 120W, AND WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
AREA WATERS, LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH, AND PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT TO FRESH SPEEDS, BEFORE WINDS
THERE BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 91W, WITH MODERATE N GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 05N.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND 4 TO 5 FT DOWNWIND
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OF 5 FT OR LESS IN S-SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
N OF THE REGION. MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH AT NIGHT, OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, SIGNIFICANT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY
MON OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE REGION NEAR 38N141W IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 04N AND W OF 100W. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 05N AND W OF 130W AND N OF
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEAS THROUGH THE BASIN ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL,
EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE W OF 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA INTO LATE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS W OF 120W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 118W
STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI THROUGH SAT, THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WATERS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS SAT THROUGH MON.
STRIPLING
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