887
AXPZ20 KNHC 050126
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N83.5W TO 01N100W TO 03.5N114W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N114W TO 06N123.5W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 04.5N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88.5W, AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
121W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFFSHORE
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, BECOMING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS
ARE SLIGHT, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MAINLY
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
MODESTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI AND
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE, BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THAT TIME. ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS IN
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI THROUGH SAT, THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE STRONG NW WINDS
OFFSHORE AND W OF 120W, AND WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
AREA WATERS, LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE TONIGHT TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS, BEFORE WINDS THERE BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND 4 TO
6 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OF 5 FT OR LESS IN S-SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE REGION. MODERATE GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH AT NIGHT,
OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, SIGNIFICANT CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MON OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE REGION NEAR 38N140W IS
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 03N AND W OF 100W. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 28N BETWEEN 125W AND
140W ALONG WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS PER RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES, AND
WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWEHRE N OF 04N AND W OF 120W.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA INTO LATE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE
W OF 120W. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS,
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST JUST N
OF THE WATERS TO THE E OF 130W. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND LINGER NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI
THROUGH SAT, THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS ACROSS REGIONAL
WATERS SAT THROUGH MON.
LEWITSKY
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