873
AXPZ20 KNHC 142048
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N90W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 01N110W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 125W TO 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE NOTED OFF CABO CORRIENTES, BUT LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS. NW SWELL TO 7 FT MAY BE REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND, OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
COMBINED SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 4-6 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND THROUGH
SUN NIGHT, THEN WILL SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT GALE
FORCE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION STARTING MON NIGHT
AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E GAP WINDS DOWNWIND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
SHOW LARGE SW SWELL APPROACHING THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT
COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN THE PAPAGAYO AREA AND 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH SEAS MAY ALSO
PERSIST OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN A MIX
OF EASTERLY SWELL FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND LONGER PERIOD SW
SWELL. EXPECT ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAVES GENERATED BY FRESH N
WINDS AND SW SWELL. THE LARGE SW WILL ALSO IMPACT OFFSHORE AREAS
OFF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, GAP
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, CENTERED ON 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
37N132W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSIST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE ALONG 130W NEAR 05N, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH.
SW SWELL OF 7-9 FT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 90W AND 125W. FARTHER WEST, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 6-8
FT SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 125W IN A COMBINATION OF NW AND SW SWELL
AND LOCAL TRADE WIND RELATED WIND WAVES. FARTHER NORTH, NW SWELL
OF 6-7 FT ARE REACHING THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 120W.
COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADEWIND ZONE WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF
120W BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH SUN. FARTHER NORTH, NW SWELL
REACHING 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
27N WEST OF 120W TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION MON THROUGH MID WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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