887
AXPZ20 KNHC 150130
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N90W TO 00N101W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 121W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS OFF CABO
CORRIENTES. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND THROUGH
SUN NIGHT, THEN WILL SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
STARTING MON NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNWIND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS WELL AS THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. SW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 02N,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS FROM ECUADOR WESTWARD TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. ROUGH SEAS MAY ALSO
PERSIST OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN A MIX
OF EASTERLY SWELL FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND LONGER PERIOD SW
SWELL. EXPECT ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAVES GENERATED BY FRESH N
WINDS AND SW SWELL. THE LARGE SW WILL ALSO IMPACT OFFSHORE AREAS
OFF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAP WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND THE SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF
7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N AND E OF 125W. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 6-8 FT SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 125W IN A COMBINATION OF
NW AND SW SWELL AND LOCAL TRADE WIND RELATED WIND WAVES. FARTHER
NORTH, NW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 6-8 FT TO THE WATERS NORTH
OF 27N WEST OF 120W. COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADEWIND ZONE WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. FARTHER NORTH, NW SWELL REACHING 8 FT WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 120W TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION MON
THROUGH MID WEEK.
AL
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