102
AXPZ20 KNHC 150737
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
STARTING MON NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N90W TO 00N98W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS OFF CABO
CORRIENTES. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE WATERS
NW OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER
THE OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, LARGE NW
SWELL OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND WILL SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT
WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, ARE OVER AND
DOWNWIND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 03N,
BRINGING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS FROM ECUADOR WESTWARD TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. EXPECT
ROUGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO WAVES GENERATED BY FRESH N WINDS AND SW SWELL. THE
LARGE SW WILL ALSO IMPACT OFFSHORE AREAS OFF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SW
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF
7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 11N AND E OF 120W. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 6-8 FT SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 120W IN A COMBINATION OF
NW AND SW SWELL AND LOCAL TRADE WIND RELATED WIND WAVES. FARTHER
NORTH, NW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 6-8 FT TO THE WATERS NORTH
OF 27N WEST OF 120W. COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADEWIND ZONE WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY TODAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY. FARTHER NORTH, NW SWELL REACHING 8 FT WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 120W WILL SUBSIDE
BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION MON
THROUGH MID WEEK.
AL
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