251
AXPZ20 KNHC 152100
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
GAP WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION STARTING MON NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 02N95W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 02N95W TO 00N98W TO 02S130W TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS AND CABO CORRIENTES. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL PROPAGATED
INTO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND OVERNIGHT, AS
CONFIRMED BY AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER TODAY OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND, AND ARE LIKELY
STARTING TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING,
THE LARGE NW SWELL OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND WILL SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION THU AND FRI.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNWIND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SW SWELL OF
6-8 FT COVERS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR IN THE LEE
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL IMPACTING THE REGION IS PEAKING, BUT
COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT MAY PERSIST OFF GUATEMALA, THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND OFF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE NE
SWELL MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA TUE THROUGH
LATE WED RELATED TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS OVER THE NEARBY GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE
PASS CONFIRMED THE SW SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9
FT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 12N AND EAST OF 120W. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE 6-8 FT SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 120W IN A COMBINATION OF NW AND
SW SWELL AND LOCAL TRADE WIND RELATED WIND WAVES. FARTHER NORTH,
NW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 5-7 FT TO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N
WEST OF 120W. COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADEWIND ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THE CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILARLY FARTHER NORTH, THE
NW SWELL REACHING 8 FT WILL PROPAGATING INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
27N WEST OF 120W WILL SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION MON THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page