129
AXPZ20 KNHC 160134
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION STARTING MON NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS MAY PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THU AND FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 03N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 03N91W TO 00N103W TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 01N BETWEEN 99W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS AND CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING,
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SW SWELL
OF 6-8 FT COVERS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW SWELL IMPACTING THE REGION WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE NE SWELL MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA TUE THROUGH LATE WED RELATED TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 6-8 FT SOUTH
OF 11N EAST OF 120W IN A COMBINATION OF NW AND SW SWELL AND
LOCAL TRADE WIND RELATED WIND WAVES. COMBINED SEAS ARE 5-7 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION
MON THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page