865
AXPZ20 KNHC 161512
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS MAY PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THU AND FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 01N115W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 03S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS AND CABO CORRIENTES. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING,
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SW SWELL
OF 6-7 FT COVERS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NE SWELL MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA TUE THROUGH LATE WED RELATED TO GALE FORCE GAP WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE UPCOMING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL BRIEFLY BRING
ROUGH SEAS TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
MIDWEEK, MAINLY N OF 09N AND E OF 101W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN/AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page