503
AXPZ20 KNHC 231518
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W AND TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FRESH SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA SUPPORTS MOSTLY GENTLE NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
MODERATE NW WINDS LATE WED. FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WATERS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT, WITH PULSING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 05N AS DEPICTED IN
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THIS TIME. GENTLE BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF ABOUT 19N
AND W OF 121W AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 16N WEST OF ABOUT 120W. SIMILAR
TRADES ARE PRESENT FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. SEAS WITH
THESE TRADES ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT WEST
OF 135W FROM 05N TO 18N. IN THE FAR NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA,
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W
AND 125W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTH SWELL ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON TUE, FOLLOWED
BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.
ERA
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