871
AXPZ20 KNHC 232035
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W AND TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTUNUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FRESH SE WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA SUPPORTS GENTLE NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT, WITH PULSING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS INTO LATE IN
THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WILL STRENGTHENS, SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NE WINDS ON SAT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 05N AS DEPICTED IN
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THIS TIME. GENTLE BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 15N
AND W OF 120W AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 16N WEST OF 120W. SIMILAR
TRADES ARE PRESENT FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. SEAS
WITH THESE TRADES ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WEST OF 120W FROM 05N TO 15N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA ON TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 139W ON WED. FRESH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP N OF 25N ON THU/FRI IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES E JUST N OF THE AREA.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page