440
AXPZ20 KNHC 240340
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N78W AND TO 07N90W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ TO 06N105W TO 03N116W TO 03N125W AND TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF
137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6
FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KT, EXCEPT NORTH OF 30N WHERE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE PRESENT. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 2 TO
4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE SPEEDS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA BEGINNING WED NIGHT. WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT, EXCEPT BECOMING GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEGINNING WED.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE NEXT GAP WIND
EVENT WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT, WITH
PULSING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS INTO
LATE IN THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WILL STRENGTHENS, SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION AS NOTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THAT REACH SOUTH TO NEAR 05N. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THIS TIME. GENTLE BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 15N
AND WEST OF 119W AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 16N WEST OF 122W AND
MODERATE TRADES FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE AREAS OF TRADES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS AND IN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY DUE TO A
LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 139W ON WED. FRESH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF 25N THU THROUGH FRI IN THE PERIPHERY OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AGUIRRE
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