583
AXPZ20 KNHC 240819
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N78W AND TO 06N90W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ TO 05N105W TO 05N115W TO 05N125W TO 04N130W AND TO
BEYOND 04N140W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 3 TO 4
FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND
10 KT. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GENERALLY SUPPORT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE SPEEDS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA BEGINNING WED NIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE NIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GALE-
FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS THERE BEGINNING SAT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASS OVER THAT PART OF THE REGION. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SUSTAINING FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THAT REACH SOUTH TO NEAR 05N. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN "V7A60"
REPORTED NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR 5.5N80W AT 05Z. SEAS ARE 4 TO
6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THIS TIME. GENTLE
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 15N
AND WEST OF 119W AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 14N WEST OF ABOUT
123W AND MODERATE TRADES FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE AREAS OF TRADES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE IN SPEEDS AND IN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION AROUND
THE HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY DUE TO
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 139W ON WED. FRESH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF 25N THU THROUGH FRI IN THE PERIPHERY OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AGUIRRE
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