585
AXPZ20 KNHC 242128
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N78W AND TO 05N88W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND W OF 104W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 3 TO
4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH
SEAS TO 7 FT. SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH SEAS TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA,
AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA ON WED NIGHT. NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU THROUGH
FRI NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH GAP WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE NIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ROUGH SEAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER EAST, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THAT REACH SOUTH TO NEAR 05N. SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THIS TIME. GENTLE
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 15N AND
WEST OF 115W, AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 14N WEST OF 123W AND
MODERATE TRADES FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. SEAS ARE 5
TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
IN SPEEDS AND IN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 139W ON WED. FRESH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF 25N THU THROUGH FRI IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
ERA
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