668
AXPZ20 KNHC 011534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N102W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N102W TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W
AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 127W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 37N141W BUILDING SE TOWARD THE REGION IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE AND 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, BEGINNING SAT NIGHT, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS COULD REACH GALE-FORCE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS OVER WATERS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARD, FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION FOR CONVECTION. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO
5 FT ARE EVIDENT OFF THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GOING TO MAINTAIN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL
LINGER IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS GOING TO KEEP MODERATE SEAS NEAR THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, QUIESCENT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1031 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N141W TO JUST SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IT IS
SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ENE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. EAST OF 130W AND
NORTH OF THE ITCZ, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT
SEAS EXIST. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MAINLY GENTLE SE TO S WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL.
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TRADE
WIND STRENGTH AND EXTENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A N TO NW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO CAUSE 8-10 FT
SEAS FROM 10N TO 20N AND WEST OF 130W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KONARIK
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