548
AXPZ20 KNHC 012038
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NE
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC SAT NIGHT THAT WILL ACCELERATE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SUN MORNING, THEN CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY SUN WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT, WITH ROUGH SEAS
OF UP 11 FT ALSO EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE MON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N107W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N107W TO 08N134W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 134W
AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 85W AND FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 112W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE GALE WARNING SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC GALES THAT WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN MORNING.
A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 37N141W BUILDING SE TOWARD THE REGION IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE AND 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE IN THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OVER WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
N WEAKENS. STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS AREA WATERS, EXCEPT SEAS OF 4 TO
6 FT OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA, AND COLOMBIA THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT NIGHT. RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP MODERATE SEAS
NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO SAT. ELSEWHERE, QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N134W TO 03N138W IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1031 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N141W TO JUST SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IT IS
SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. EAST OF 130W AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ, MODERATE NE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST. SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ,LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTH OF 31N THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACTING TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE ITCZ. THIS WILL ALLOW
TRADEWINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NW SWELL WILL INDUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT W OF 135W N OF THE
ITCZ TO 20N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KONARIK
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