936
AXPZ20 KNHC 020413
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A LATE-
SEASON STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER A GAP WIND EVENT IN GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS TO
REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE SUN AND SUN NIGHT, ALONG WITH SEAS
PEAKING AT 9 TO 11 FT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE MON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO 07N100W TO 08N119W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N119W TO 07N133W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR AN UP-COMING GALE
WARNING.
A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 37N141W BUILDING SE TOWARD THE REGION IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE AND 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE IN THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION,
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REFER TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS AREA WATERS, EXCEPT SEAS OF 4 TO
6 FT OFFSHORE ECUADOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA, AND COLOMBIA
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
PAPAGAYO REGION FROM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP MODERATE SEAS NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS UNTIL
SAT MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N134W TO 03N138W IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1031 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N141W TO JUST SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IT IS
SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. EAST OF 130W AND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ, MODERATE NE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST. SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ,LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTH OF 31N THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACTING TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE ITCZ. THIS WILL ALLOW
TRADEWINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NW SWELL WILL INDUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT W OF 135W N OF THE
ITCZ TO 20N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHAN
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