718
AXPZ20 KNHC 021600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE-SEASON, SHORT-LIVED GAP
WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION BY EARLY SUN
MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE ON SUN, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT. THEN, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING WITH SEAS OF
8 TO 10 FT. AFTERWARDS, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON OCCURS
IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING IN
LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO 07N80W TO 09N95W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N105W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 87W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MEXICAN FORECAST
WATERS, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SW TO W WINDS AND SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUNATEPEC
REGION, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO SW WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ACROSS ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT WINDS ARE FROM THE S
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS
FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA
FOR THE FORECAST, CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLOMBIA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION BY MON
NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS, IN SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. IT
IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS W OF 130W.
AN AREA OF ROUGH SEAS IN NE SWELL IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 17N W OF
134W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELLS
ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W. SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS PREVAIL.
A FORMER COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SINK
SOUTH OF 31N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN, WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE OF THE
ITCZ. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE W
OF 130W WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN.
GR
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