477
AXPZ20 KNHC 030429
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A LATE-SEASON TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY
SUN MORNING THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THESE GAP WINDS
WILL REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE SUN MORNING THROUGH LATE SUN
NIGHT, ALONG WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 9 TO 11 FT. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MON, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY AND ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON OCCURS
IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING IN
LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER
OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO 09N87W TO 08N95W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N95W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A LARGE AREA OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
FROM 03N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND 92W, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MEXICAN FORECAST
WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUNATEPEC
REGION, FRESH S TO SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL PULSE TO BETWEEN STRONG AND NEAR-GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AND
MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WHILE W TO NW WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF IT.
SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 3 TO 5 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL. MEANWHILE,
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AFFECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA, PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PANAMA. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR A MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA, THROUGH MON NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION MON NIGHT, AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, IN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY SWELL, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 145W ARE
CAUSING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 15N AND WEST OF 132W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N
OF 15N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
ANALYZED FROM 20N135W TO 15N138W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO BEYOND 140W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS.
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE TRADE WIND
ZONE. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS PREVAIL.
A FORMER COLD FRONT, IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH, WILL SINK
SOUTH OF 31N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS BY SUN NIGHT W OF 130W. AS A RESULT, ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MON. PULSES OF NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH NE WIND WAVES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W.
CHAN
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