964
AXPZ20 KNHC 031006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A LATE-SEASON TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL LAST FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING, AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE GAP WINDS WILL
REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 12 FT. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MON, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY AND ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON OCCURS
IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING IN
LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL PANAMA TO 07N94W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N94W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. WIDESPREAD
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 93W, INCLUDING THE GULF
OF PANAMA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR AN ONGOING
GALE WARNING.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 124W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
SUPPORTING GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE WATERS NEAR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUNATEPEC
REGION, FRESH S TO SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL PULSE TO BETWEEN STRONG AND NEAR-GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND MON
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE REFER TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAIL ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE NW
TO NE WINDS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE WATERS OFF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. GENTLE S TO SW TO W WINDS AND SEAS AT
3 TO 5 FT IN MODERATE S SWELL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR A MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION MON NIGHT, AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, IN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS EAST OF A ROBUST SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
146W ARE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N
AND WEST OF 125W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS 30N140E TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IT IS PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO
NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE NW SWELL, NORTH OF 18N
AND WEST OF 115W/120W, AND ALSO NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W
AND 120W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS DOMINATE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W. MAINLY GENTLE
WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIX
SWELLS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS GOING TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
IN RESPONSE, TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 18N AND WEST OF
130W ARE GOING TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG MON
THROUGH TUE, ALSO SUSTAINING THE ROUGH SEAS. A COMBINATION OF NW
AND SOUTHERLY SWELLS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SEAS FOR THE
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
CHAN
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