075
AXPZ20 KNHC 031540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE-SEASON TEHUANTEPEC GAP
WIND EVENT WILL LAST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING,
AS A RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE GAP WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 12 FT. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MON, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY AND ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON OCCURS
IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING IN
LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER
TO 07N96W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N96W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO
10N BETWEEN 82W AND 94W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MEXICAN FORECAST WATERS, AND
OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS IN THE TEHUNATEPEC
REGION, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATORIAL
TROUGH WHILE W TO NW WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF IT. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL
3 TO 5 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS FROM COLOMBIA
TO NICARAGUA. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA, THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, CONTINUING
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, IN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY SWELL,
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT MULTILAYER CLOUDS OVER
THE NW WATERS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 120W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED.
OUTSIDE OF THE TRADE WIND ZONE, MAINLY MODERATE SEAS ARE
OBSERVED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IS GOING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE
ITCZ. IN RESPONSE, TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 18N
AND WEST OF 130W ARE GOING TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
STRONG MON THROUGH TUE, ALSO SUSTAINING THE ROUGH SEAS. A
COMBINATION OF NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELLS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
GR
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