368
AXPZ20 KNHC 072152
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W TO 09N100W TO
06N115W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N115W TO 05130W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF
110W, AND WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ICTZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT, PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME LARGE NW
SWELL THAT MAY APPROACH GUADALUPE ISLAND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, GAP WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN
ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE MODERATE IN S-SW SWELL
ACROSS THE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OFF THE COASTS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT LARGE SW SWELL NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI AND SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT
IN THESE WATERS, HIGHEST WEST OF 135W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TRADES, STRONG AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N AND WEST
OF 120W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXCEPT ROUGH SEAS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM THU-SAT
NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
CHRISTENSEN
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