996
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 09 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N78W AND TO 09N98W TO 08N110W AND
TO 06N124W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N135W AND
TO WEST OF THE AREA AT 06N140W NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W-110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-110W, ALSO WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-133W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ WEST OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 97W-100W, ALSO BETWEEN 136W-139W
AND WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 81W-86W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE ASSOCIATED TO A
1023 MB HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 32N134W AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5
TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL FROM BAJA SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES TO 18N, WHERE SEAS ARE
4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LONG-
PERIOD SWELL. GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THEN BECOME MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF TO CABO CORRIENTES, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5
FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, EXCEPT
FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS SOUTH OF ABOUT 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC, OAXACA, AND
GUERRERO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS IN LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEAKENED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH
WED. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF BAJA NORTE AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR GALE GAP WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA REVEALS MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TO SOUTH OF THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FILTERING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND TO NEAR 05N. COMBINED SEAS ARE
5 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL NEAR
03.4S BETWEEN 84W AND 90W AS SEEN IN A RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE AT NIGHT TO STRONG ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELL NEAR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE GALAPAGOS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES FROM 06N TO 24N WEST OF 130W AND SIMILAR TRADES FROM
10N TO 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER
DATA SHOWED 6-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE
OR WEAKER BREEZES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE NORTH OF 23N, WITH GENTLE
BREEZES AND 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 10N AND WEST OF 122W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD SUN
THROUGH TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES, AND FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.
AGUIRRE
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