881
AXPZ20 KNHC 092219 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 9 2026
CORRECTED OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N78W TO 06N86W TO 07N93W TO 09N105W
TO 08N115W AND TO 07N125W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
06N135W AND TO BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W-109W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W, AND FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN
88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CORRECTED
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE ASSOCIATED TO A 1026 MB
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 32N134W AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL FROM BAJA SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR 17N, WHERE
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LONG-PERIOD SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE AND
NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION FROM THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF TO CABO
CORRIENTES, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.
INCREASING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, AND TO THE SOUTH OF OAXACA, AND GUERRERO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS WITHIN THIS GENERAL AREA. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND DURING TONIGHT, OR POSSIBLY LONGER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESENT GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THROUGH MON. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS WILL BE OVER THESE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS JUST NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUN EVENING, THEN TAPER OFF. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO
NEAR GALE GAP WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TO SOUTH OF THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FILTERING THROUGH THE THE GULF
OF PANAMA AND TO NEAR 05N. FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W
AND 80W. COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM
THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 03.4S AND EAST OF 88W TO NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA AS SEEN IN THE LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH
OF COSTA RICA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE AT NIGHT TO STRONG ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. LARGE
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE
GALAPAGOS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N134W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS GENERALLY MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 24N WEST OF 130W AND SIMILAR
TRADES FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. ALTIMETER DATA PASSES REVEAL SEAS OF 7
TO 9 FT IN MIXED EAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THIS AREA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 11N PER LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND A FEW
SOFAR SPOTTER BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DUE TO
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE SOUTH 11N. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA
IS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD SUN
THROUGH TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES, FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS
OF 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT, SUBSIDING EARLY ON SUN, THEN ANOTHER
PULSE OF THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM 01S TO
03.4S BETWEEN 120W AND 108W STARTING SUN AFTERNOON.
AGUIRRE
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