016
AXPZ20 KNHC 100252
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 06N80W TO 10N88W
TO 11N105W TO 08N111W TO 09.5N121W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 83.5W AND 93W, AND
FROM 05.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 07.5N WEST OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE W OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. FRESH WINDS ARE
ASSUMED TO NOW BE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST FROM PUNTA EUGENIA
TO SAN ANTONIO. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT IN
NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL FROM BAJA
SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
AND CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR 17N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN
MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF. WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE AND NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION
FROM THE GULF ENTRANCE TO CABO CORRIENTES, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6
FT IN SW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF NW AND SW SWELL, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE SOUTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD IN RECENT HOURS AND ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH MON. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
AND DRIFT NORTHWARD MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING,
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG TO NEAR GALE GAP
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EXTENDING TO NEAR 88W. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
FILTERING THROUGH THE THE GULF OF PANAMA AT THAT TIME AND TO
NEAR 05N HAVE INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL OCCURRING S OF 01N AND E OF 100W TO
NEAR THE COAST OF PERU.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE AT NIGHT TO STRONG ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. LARGE
SW SWELL NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE GALAPAGOS WILL SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N133W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS GENERALLY MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 24N WEST OF 130W, WITH
SIMILAR TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, AS NOTED
IN AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALTIMETER DATA REVEALS
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL OVER THIS AREA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 11N PER LATEST ALTIMETER DATA A FEW SOFAR
OCEAN SPOTTER BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SW
SWELL ARE SOUTH 11N. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA IS AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, AND HAS BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD SUN
THROUGH TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES, FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS
OF 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT, SUBSIDING EARLY ON SUN, THEN ANOTHER
PULSE OF SW TO S SWELL WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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