951
AXPZ20 KNHC 100821
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 07N79W TO 10N88W
TO 11.5N103W TO 09N121W TO 07N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND
94W, AND FROM 06.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11.5N WEST OF 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE W
OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
REGION. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. GENTLE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL FROM BAJA SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR 17N, WHERE
SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. WINDS INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE SHIFTED W TO SW IN RECENT HOURS AND ARE
AT GENERALLY GENTLE SPEEDS, WITH A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE GAP
WINDS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 2 FT IN THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN A MIX OF NW AND SW
SWELL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 90 NM OF
THE COAST FROM OAXACA TO GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH SUN. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS TO 8
FT MOVING INTO THE WATERS N THROUGH NW OF ISLA GUADALUPE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO
TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT, THEN BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION EXTENDING TO NEAR 88W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS
ARE SPILLING INTO THE THE GULF OF PANAMA NORTH OF 06.5N. COMBINED
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF
7 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL OCCURRING S OF 01N AND E OF 100W TO NEAR
THE COAST OF PERU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
PANAMA WESTWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO NEAR 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. LARGE SW
SWELL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS NEAR 8 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF
THE GALAPAGOS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY, THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE
THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
32N135W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
GENERALLY MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 24N
WEST OF 126W, WITH SIMILAR TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 117W
AND 126W. RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA REVEALS SEAS OF 7 TO 9
FT IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL OVER THIS AREA S OF 21N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 11N PER LATEST ALTIMETER DATA A FEW SOFAR OCEAN SPOTTER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL ARE SOUTH 13N.
CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA IS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH, AND HAS BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN BETWEEN 96W AND 112W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUN, THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD MON THROUGH
TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TRADES, FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 22N
AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8
FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS IN BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING MON NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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