415
AXPZ20 KNHC 102204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N78W TO 06N82W TO 07N90W TO 09N100W
TO 08N110W TO 07N118W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N125W 1011 MB TO
07N130W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
07N135W 1011 MB AND TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-90W, WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-94W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 122W-126W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE W OF THE AREA
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST NEAR
PUNTA EUGENIA AND NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT TO 8 FT BETWEEN 30N
AND PUNTA EUGENIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL FROM
BAJA SUR AND CABO SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR 17N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT
PRIMARILY IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL. WINDS INSIDE THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ARE GENERALLY AT GENTLE SPEEDS, AT TIMES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
MOSTLY AT VARIABLE DIRECTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION. SEAS ARE
1 TO 2 FT IN THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION.
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
GULF AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASS. SEAS ARE OF MODERATE STATE PRIMARILY FROM A SOUTHWEST SWELL
COMPONENT, MIXING WITH A NORTHWEST SWELL COMPONENT WEST OF ABOUT
109.5W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BEYOND 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM OAXACA TO GUERRERO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OF ISLA
GUADALUPE TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. A NEW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, LEADING TO MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT, THEN
BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN MODEST
RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE MOST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH TO STRONG EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING TO NEAR 88W AS REVEALED IN THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. MOSTLY MODERATE NORTH WINDS ARE DOWNWIND FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 05N TO 07N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS ARE NORTH OF 04N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 79W.
COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL PRESENT SOUTH
02S AND EAST OF ABOUT 100W TO NEAR THE COAST OF PERU AS NOTED IN
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. MOSTLY MODERATE NORTH
WINDS ARE DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
NORTH OF 04N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 79W. COMBINED SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO
8 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL PRESENT SOUTH 02S AND EAST OF
ABOUT 100W TO NEAR THE COAST OF PERU AS NOTED IN RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF PANAMA WESTWARD ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS TO NEAR 90W. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
TO MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THU, THEN AT FRESH SPEEDS FRI. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
GENERALLY MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 09N TO 24N
WEST OF 126W, AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED NORTHWEST AND EAST SWELL ARE OVER THIS AREA
SOUTH OF 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 122W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ALONG WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF ABOUT
11N PER LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES, AND A COUPLE OF
SOFAR OCEAN SPOTTER BUOY REPORTS FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD MON THROUGH
TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TRADES, FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 22N
AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8
FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT A
PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AND THE WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT, SPREADING EASTWARD
IN COVERAGE INTO MON BEFORE DECAYING LATER ON MON AND INTO TUE.
AGUIRRE
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