312
AXPZ20 KNHC 110306
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74.5W TO 05.5N81W TO
11N102W TO 05N118W TO 07N118W TO 08N127W TO 06N137W TO 06.5N140W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 08.5N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 03S TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W
AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A BROAD RIDGE PERSISTS WEST OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 6 FT
IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF OF BAJA NORTE.
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL FROM BAJA SUR AND CABO
SAN LUCAS SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO
CORRIENTES TO NEAR 17N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY IN
SW SWELL. WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE GENERALLY AT
GENTLE SPEEDS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TO TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 101W AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
17.5N104W TO 12.5N107W, BUT ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF
MICHOACAN. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS, LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS
IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS NORTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT,
LEADING TO MOSTLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO TEHUANTEPEC MON
NIGHT, THEN BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS TUE THROUGH
THU NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING TO NEAR 89W. SE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO
MODERATE THIS EVENING. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N.
COMBINED SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
AND EAST OF ABOUT 100W TO NEAR THE COAST OF PERU AS NOTED IN
RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 02N TO 08.5N AND E OF
89W, AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF SW PANAMA AND SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
TO MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH THU, THEN AT FRESH SPEEDS FRI. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 85W THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
GENERALLY MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 25N
WEST OF 124W, AND FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND E SWELL ARE OVER THIS AREA SOUTH OF
21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 122W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH
SEAS OF ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF ABOUT 11N PER
RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA, AND A COUPLE OF SOFAR OCEAN
SPOTTER BUOY REPORTS FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD MON THROUGH
TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TRADES, FRESH AT TIMES, NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 22N
AND WEST OF 120W SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8
FT ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT A
PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AND THE WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT, SPREADING EASTWARD
IN COVERAGE INTO MON BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE INTO WED.
STRIPLING
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