785
AXPZ20 KNHC 190301
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 82W FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N85W TO 07N90W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N129W,
THEN TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W, FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W,
AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE NW BREEZES COVER MOST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING, AS BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION FROM A 1034 MB
HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 38N140W. LIGHT BREEZES ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE 8-11 FT NW SWELL STILL
IS PRESENT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT IS SUBSIDING. COMBINED SEAS
ARE 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RESIDUAL LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN 8 TO 11 FT SEAS OFF BAJA NORTE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 8 TO 11
FT NEAR BAJA SUR WILL ALSO DROP TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FT BY TUE
AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE
THIS EVENING, AND STAY THIS WAY MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS IN THE NIGHT-TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E GAP WINDS WITH 5-7 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
CURRENTLY, BUT THERE WAS EARLIER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 38N140W ACROSS 30N136W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W. UNDER LONG-PERIOD, LARGE TO MODERATE NW
SWELL, SEAS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 7 TO 12 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST
NEAR 30N125W. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO STEADILY SUBSIDE
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS BY THU. WINDS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WILL
ALSO BECOMING GENTLE BY THU WITH SEAS STAYING AT 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED SWELLS.
CHRISTENSEN
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