594
AXPZ20 KNHC 191525
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W, EXTENDING NORTH OF 04N INTO
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. IT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 09.5N79W TO 10N86W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N92W TO 09.5N101W TO 06N118W TO 08N126W
TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 10N E OF 88W, AND FROM 00N TO
13N BETWEEN 98W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE NW TO N BREEZES CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JUST N OF
ISLA GUADALUPE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N124W IS PARTIALLY BLOCKING
A BROAD RIDGE TO THE W OF THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH, THE
RIDGE EXTENDS MODESTLY INTO BAJA SUR, WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. LIGHT
BREEZES ARE NOTED INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE N-NW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT
OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA
SHOWING AN AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
THIS CURRENT SWELL HAS BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. COMBINED SEAS ARE 4-7
FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN WATERS
BETWEEN TEHUANTEPEC AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL PERSIST OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TODAY, AND WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG ROUGHLY 20N WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE IN NW
SWELL.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS WITH 5-8 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 90W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA,
PANAMA, AND NW COLOMBIA, BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 38N141W SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 122W. LARGE TO
MODERATE N TO NE SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS GENERALLY N OF 14N THIS MORNING, PRODUCING SEAS IN THIS
AREA RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT TO THE W OF 110W, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT
JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 127W. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
EAST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
105W AND 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO STEADILY SUBSIDE
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS BY THU. WINDS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WILL
ALSO BECOMING GENTLE BY THU WITH SEAS STAYING AT 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED SWELLS.
STRIPLING
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