161
AXPZ20 KNHC 200253
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W, EXTENDING NORTH OF 04N INTO EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. IT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N87W TO 07N89W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N120W,
THEN CONTINUES ON TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W, FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND
NEAR 27N120W, ALONG A TROUGH REACHING FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA TO 24N122W. THIS FEATURE IS BREAKING UP THE USUAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA, AND THEREFORE ALLOWING ONLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE
WINDS NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN
NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE BREEZE AND 4-6 FT
IN NW SWELL PERSIST OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH WED, SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.
MODERATE NW SWELL WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG ROUGHLY 20N
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, WITH FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS WITH 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 90W THIS EVENING.
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THEN EXTEND BEYOND 90W TO WELL SOUTH OF
TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING, THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SAT.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF 20N SOUTHWARD FROM A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR 40N141W, AND SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE, TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH 7-10 FT
COMBINED SEAS PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND 5-7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
STEADILY SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 6 TO 7 FT SEAS BY FRI. WINDS SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ WILL ALSO BECOMING GENTLE BY FRI WITH SEAS REMAINING
AT 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
CHRISTENSEN
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