297
AXPZ20 KNHC 202300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94W FROM OFF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DESCRIBED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA AND
TO 07N100W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 07N100W TO 08N115W,
THEN FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 90W, INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA, COLOMBIA AND THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 108W, AND FROM 06N TO
10N WEST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 128W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1
TO 3 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WATERS. EASTERLY FRESH E WINDS WITH SEAS
AT 5 TO 6 FT PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED FOR THE REMAINING OFFSHORE WATERS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS DOMINATE WATERS OFF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, AND
NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. REFER TO THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR CONVECTION IN THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO STRONG, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N119W IS TRIGGERING PATCHY SHOWERS FROM
23N TO 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. FARTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER 1009 MB
LOW AND RELATED SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. REFER TO THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A 1035 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N144W ACROSS 30N140W TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST
OF 118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT IN
MIXED NW AND S SWELLS EXIST NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 118W. SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7
FT IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE, AND 5 TO 6 FT BY THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WILL ALSO BECOMING GENTLE BY
FRI WITH SEAS REMAINING AT 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
CHAN
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